I have been looking at the mortality figures for England and Wales between 2017 - 2020 on the National Statistics website (all information is available to the public and free.)
Jan 2017 - 2019 - average deaths in England and Wales = 58,353.
Jan 2020 - deaths in England and Wales = 56,597.
Feb 2017 - 2019 - av # deaths in England & Wales = 47,492.
Feb 2020 - deaths in England & Wales = 43,555.
March 2017 - 2019 - av # deaths in England & Wales = 48,467.
March 2020 - deaths in England & Wales = 49,641.
April 2017 - 2019 - av # deaths in England & Wales = 43,137.
April 2020 - deaths in England & Wales = 88,049.
May 2017 - 2019 - av # deaths in England & Wales = 43,720.
May 2020 - deaths in England & Wales = 52,315
June 2017 - 2019 - average # = 40,088.
June 2020 - deaths = 42,577.
July 2017 - 2019 - average # = 40,375.
July 2020 - deaths = 40,731.
August 2017 - 2019 - average # = 38,775.
August 2020 - deaths = 37,129
This is the most up-to-date data available at https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales
OF COURSE, the numbers this year for April & May are alarming - but what we cannot see until 2021 is the number of suicides that play a part here.
April was the first full month of lockdown in the UK - many businesses were folding, people had no income as the benefits system was backlogged and business funding and grants etc had not yet come through - it would be interesting to see how many suicides occurred in April. The ONS doesn't release this particular information for at least 6 months because there is an inquest into suicides which takes usually 5-6 months. So we won't be able to see what effect suicide OFFICIALLY had on these numbers until next year.
What is also interesting in the difference between the words 'caused by COVID-19' and 'involving COVID-19.'
When you search for 'deaths CAUSED by COVID-19' you get this message response:
''There were 33,841 deaths involving the coronavirus (COVID-19) that occurred between 1 March and 30 April 2020 registered up to 5 May 2020 in England and Wales; of these, 32,143 (95.0%) had COVID-19 assigned as the underlying cause of death.
The doctor certifying a death can list all causes in the chain of events that led to the death and pre-existing conditions that may have contributed to the death. Using this information, we determine an underlying cause of death. More information on this process can be found in our user guide. In the majority of cases (32,143 deaths, 95.0%) when COVID-19 was mentioned on the death certificate, it was found to be the underlying cause of death.
Our definition of COVID-19 includes some cases where the certifying doctor suspected the death involved COVID-19 but was not certain, for example, because no test was done. Of the 32,143 deaths with an underlying cause of COVID-19, 1,325 (4.1%) were classified as "suspected" COVID-19. Including mentions, "suspected" COVID-19 was recorded on 4.7% of all deaths involving COVID-19.''
So out of the 137,690 deaths that occurred between 1 March 2020 and 30 April 2020, 30,818 were confirmed as caused by COVID-19. What was the cause of the other 106,872 deaths?!
When you search for 'Deaths involving COVID19 2020' you are shown an excel spreadsheet with data that only goes up to March 2020.
So if death rates are pretty similar on average to the last 3 years (apart April and May - the start of lockdown) and 106,872 deaths during March and April were not 'caused' by COVID-19, you can draw your own conclusions.
